Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
